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December
2009 --From the desk of Patrick Lenouvel
2009
will be remembered as a year characterized for economic meltdown with
negative world GDP growth. The year started with a freefall economy
than moved to signs of stability followed by a return to positive GDP
growth.
The
recovery is expected to broaden, but the question still remains its staying
power over the next two to four years.
Limited
access to credit and high consumer debt level continue to damper consumption
and housing market recovery especially in the USA.
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Once
monetary and fiscal programs around the world are scaled back, developed
countries economies could be vulnerable to setbacks again.
China's
economic and fiscal policies may impact recovery around the world. However,
country debts and account deficit could be the next big crisis unless
economies jump-start again. We are still very worry about the
condition of the US banks and their lending (or should I say lack of
lending) policies.
A
good news, according to Goldman Sachs, companies within the same sectors are
no longer as correlated as in recent months. The selection of
securities should once again have an impact of
performances.
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